April 2026 market outlook: Ain’t no stoppin’ us now

April 2026 Market Outlook – AI Momentum Keeps Markets Rising

“Ain’t no stoppin’ us now” – McFadden & Whitehead, 1979

April’s market performance echoed the fabulous groove of McFadden & Whitehead’s “Ain’t No Stoppin’ Us Now,” as investors witnessed relentless momentum fuelled by structural shifts in technology.

At the heart of this April 2026 market outlook was the unwavering commitment of hyperscalers to GenAI. Quarterly earnings reports acted as a loud “groove,” revealing that capital expenditure is not just increasing — it is accelerating.

Peace talks stalling, the Ormuz Strait still closed, oil prices shooting up, rising inflation fears? No worries. Even when the macro environment threatened to “hold us back,” the sheer gravity of the AI revolution kept market sentiment firmly supported.

Hyperscalers are clearly chanting “Ain’t No Stoppin’ Us Now” as they pour massive amounts of capital into AI infrastructure — an investment theme extending far beyond the traditional IT sector. By month-end, the message from markets was clear: with the big boys in technology “all fired up,” the technological bull run still has plenty of soul left.

The numbers reinforced the tone of this April 2026 market outlook. The MSCI World soared 9.5% in April, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the march (+15.6%). The S&P 500 added 10.4%, while Emerging Markets also stood out, rising 14.5%.

Unsurprisingly, in a month dominated by technology leadership, Growth largely outperformed Value (+12.3% vs +6.9%), while Europe lagged behind (+4.8%).

On the fixed-income front, the risk-on mood supported credit markets, with the Itraxx Crossover rising sharply (+3.3%), while long-term government bond yields barely moved. Gold edged slightly lower, while oil continued its ascent, with WTI now up 83% year-to-date.

Ultimately, this April 2026 market outlook suggests that, despite geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, investors remain overwhelmingly focused on the transformative power of AI and long-term technology investment trends.

 

This content is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or investment product.

The views and opinions expressed are those of NS PARTNERS SA at the date of publication and may change without notice. References to specific securities, sectors or market developments are provided for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment recommendations or investment research.

Past performance does not predict future returns. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and investors may not recover the amount originally invested. Investments involve risks, including possible loss of capital.

References to market indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance are provided for information purposes only. NS PARTNERS SA makes reasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy of the information contained herein but provides no warranty or representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Some entities of the NS Partners Group or their clients may hold positions in the financial instruments mentioned or may act as advisor to related issuers.

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March 2026 market outlook: How long?

March 2026 Market outlook – Geopolitics, Oil and Stagflation Fears

“How Long” – Ace, 1974 and Lipps Inc, 1980.

March 2026 ends on a bitter note, echoing the haunting refrain of Ace: “How long has this been going on?” Once again, the Middle East is ablaze, plunging markets back into a cycle of tension we had hoped was fading.

In this March 2026 market outlook, this chronic instability acts like a poison on risk appetite, forcing investors to wonder just how much longer geopolitics will continue to overrule — or deeply affect — economic fundamentals.

The consequences are immediate: oil prices are soaring, reigniting inflationary fears just as central banks were attempting to stabilize rates. Uncertainty surrounding shipping routes and energy supplies is creating palpable nervosity across stock indices, with no real flight to safety, as gold as well as govies nosedived.

Beyond the fear that this conflict is here to stay for a while, the risk of its consequences — ranging from rising inflation to falling activity, in other words the infamous stagflation — has roiled almost all asset classes.

Even if a glimmer of hope surged on the very last day of the month, the market seems to whisper, like Ace and Lipps Inc, “I ain’t quite as dumb as I seem,” fully aware that peace remains a fragile mirage.

The numbers confirm the tone. WTI soared by more than 51% in March, triggering inflation fears that propelled 10-year government bond yields to the upside. The dollar found a bid and rose against all major currencies, but, quite unexpectedly in such an environment, gold fell by 12.1%.

Risk-off was also felt in credit markets: the Itraxx Crossover fell close to 2.8%, hampered by rising rates, widening spreads and suspicions about an ongoing crisis in private debt markets.

Equities slumped across the board. The MSCI World abandoned 6.6%, the S&P 500 5.1%, the Nasdaq 4.9%, Europe 8%, while even more pain was inflicted on Japan (-11.2%) and Emerging Markets (-13.3%). Growth and Value went down in sync (-6.8% and -6.4%), and Bitcoin added 2.2%, but remains down 22.2% year to date.

In the end, this March 2026 market outlook leaves investors with more questions than answers — and one lingering refrain: how long can this continue?

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this document only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. 

This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities.

References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. 

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February 2026 Market Comments: Are you Ready?

Market Comments – Are You Ready? Style Rotation, Rising Oil Prices and Geopolitical Risk Shake Global Markets

“Are you ready” – Billy Ocean, 1980.

Does Billy Ocean’s beat capture today’s market shifts? In turn, are you ready (or were you ready?) for recent weeks’ sharp shift in the global market outlook, with investors facing strong style rotation, rising oil prices, improving market breadth and, among other things, renewed concerns in private debt, followed at the very end of the month by a sudden escalation in geopolitical risk.

If the Dow Jones more or less flatlined during the month, helped by Energy and Cyclicals, significant damage occurred in software stocks on the back of AI-led disruption threats. Salesforce.com, the poster child of the unstoppable rise of SaaS in the corporate world, lost more than 8% in February, down 26% year to date, and this is not an isolated example. Microsoft, one of the world’s largest company, was down 8.7% in February and is down more than 18% year to date.

Few investors could say they were fully prepared for such a seismic market rotation: software stocks were extremely popular among investors because of their low capital intensity and recurring revenues attributes, and not only in public markets, as private equity as well as private debt also had elevated exposure to software companies. To wit, Blue Owl Capital had to halt redemptions in one of its popular fund investing in private debt; rising defaults and software exposure sparked broader contagion concerns in private credit markets.

The geopolitical bass line also intensified. Markets had some level of preparedness for a deteriorating situation in the Middle East, but clearly not for what happened on February 28, which led to a sudden increase in geopolitical risk premium and renewed volatility across global markets.

In a nutshell: growth vs value rotation, higher oil prices, and a rising risk premium — in essence, a challenge to many of the winning trades of the past few years, and a reminder that markets can quickly move into a more defensive, risk-off environment.

The MSCI World Index added 0.6% in February, very much helped by non-US markets: the S&P 500 lost 0.9% but the Stoxx 600 Europe, Topix Japan and MSCI Emerging Markets respectively rose 3.7%, 10.4% and 5.4%. Value stocks increased its advance versus Growth (+2.8% vs -1.7%) confirming the ongoing style rotation in global equity markets.

Government bonds thrived on the back of safe haven status, while credit markets suffered from the risk-off move and lost 0.2%. When geopolitical tensions rise in the Middle East, oil prices tend to move higher, and when risk-off sentiment dominates, gold prices usually follow. Oil gained 2.8% during the month, while gold rose 7.9%. Bitcoin was among the main casualties of the changing market environment, falling 18.6% in February alone and 27.4% year to date.

Overall, the combination of market rotation, higher oil prices, rising geopolitical tensions and stress in private debt markets suggests that the current investment outlook may be less supportive for the dominant trades of recent years, and that investors should be prepared for a more volatile and selective market environment.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this market comments may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this market comments only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. 

This market comments does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this market comments to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities.

References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. 

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January 2026 Market Comments: High Energy!

January 2026 Market Comments

 

“High Energy” – Evelyn Thomas, 1984.

Volatility was the lead singer this month, hitting high notes on many asset classes. The AI revolution has reached a fever pitch, demanding a massive, non-stop surge of electrical power. Data centers are the new power-hungry stars, causing electricity demand to pulse like a heavy bassline: according to the IEA, the global power consumption of AI could double by 2026, a truly High Energy pace. Grid infrastructure stocks are climbing the charts as the world rushes to fuel the silicon brain. Nuclear and renewable sectors are vibrating with fresh capital, chasing the “everlasting love” of stability. The “Hyperscalers” are pouring billions into juice, ensuring their digital empires never lose the beat. Commodity prices for copper and uranium are dancing to an upbeat, aggressive tempo this winter. Investors are “caught up in a game of emotions”, which frequently, or always, lead to heightened volatility.

Gyrations were also very wide in Commodities and precious metals, and the good news in January is that the month ended on a positive note as a whole, which was not a given considering all the news flow, whether geopolitical or financial.

The MSCI World added 2.2% in January, the 10th consecutive month of positive returns, with US markets underperforming Europe, Japan and Emerging Markets: the S&P was up 1.4%, Europe 3.2%, Japan 4.6% and Emerging Markets 8.8%. Currencies had less impact last month, but the dollar was still under pressure. Value largely outperformed Growth (+4.6% versus -0.3%), most fixed-income markets were quite stable (barring the JGBs, which suffered again from rising yields in Japan).

Gold, despite a 11% fall on the last day of the month, still added 13.3%, slightly behind Oil which was up 13.6%. The major laggard in January was the Bitcoin, down 10.8%.

 

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. © NS Partners Group

December 2025 Market Comments: Can the Bull Run “Do It Again”?

December 2025 Market Comments

 

“Do it again” – Steely Dan, 1972.

Investors would surely love financial markets to “Do it Again” in 2026; although Steely Dan’s classic is different as it’s all about repeating the same mistakes again and again, it would be nice to see almost everything rise in 2026 (barring Oil or Cryptos, it was hard to find a losing asset class in 2025). We’ve experienced almost every sentiment in 2025, from fear to greed, panic, FOMO, scepticism and euphoria; but, at the end of the year, bulls won.

So here we are, glasses raised at year-end, wondering: could the band play it one more time? Could 2026 be the encore — another year of liquidity, AI miracles, and soft landings? Or should we expect something different, in other words less capacity to overcome doubts when nasty events happen? “You go back, Jack, do it again, wheel turnin’ round and round”: we will face nasty events this year, like every year before; what matters is how do investors react to them. The market, like the crowd in the bar, is ready to dance again.

Just don’t ask what happens when the music stops.

The MSCI World added 0.7% in December and closed 2025 with an enviable 19.5% gain; almost all equity markets posted solid double digit returns in local currency terms (S&P 500 +16.4%, Stoxx 600 +16.7%, Topix +22.4%, Emerging Markets +30.6%), with a more balanced picture between Growth and Value (+18.2% and +20.4% respectively).

The narrative around AI in general has been a major driver of equity performance, as well as the probable path towards a more dovish Fed, especially at the end of the year.
Currencies, and the dollar in particular, have been an important factor in 2025. The weak dollar (-13.4% versus the euro for the year) makes that returns, when measured in the same currency, are very different compared to local currency returns; for once, Europe has been the best performer in 2025 in this context.

Government bonds faced opposite fates; the US debt did well, while its German counterpart did not. Credit was strong, Oil extremely weak (-20% for the WTI) and Gold extremely strong (+64.6%).

We enter 2026 with a positive mood, but also many possible threats, like high valuations, poor public finances in many countries, geopolitical instability and a possibly shaky private debt situation. So please, Mr Market, “Do it Again” in terms of performances in 2026, but don’t “Do it Again” with complacency regarding valuations or leverage, we know this ends badly.

 

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. © NS Partners Group