April 2026 market outlook: Ain’t no stoppin’ us now

April 2026 Market Outlook – AI Momentum Keeps Markets Rising

“Ain’t no stoppin’ us now” – McFadden & Whitehead, 1979

April’s market performance echoed the fabulous groove of McFadden & Whitehead’s “Ain’t No Stoppin’ Us Now,” as investors witnessed relentless momentum fuelled by structural shifts in technology.

At the heart of this April 2026 market outlook was the unwavering commitment of hyperscalers to GenAI. Quarterly earnings reports acted as a loud “groove,” revealing that capital expenditure is not just increasing — it is accelerating.

Peace talks stalling, the Ormuz Strait still closed, oil prices shooting up, rising inflation fears? No worries. Even when the macro environment threatened to “hold us back,” the sheer gravity of the AI revolution kept market sentiment firmly supported.

Hyperscalers are clearly chanting “Ain’t No Stoppin’ Us Now” as they pour massive amounts of capital into AI infrastructure — an investment theme extending far beyond the traditional IT sector. By month-end, the message from markets was clear: with the big boys in technology “all fired up,” the technological bull run still has plenty of soul left.

The numbers reinforced the tone of this April 2026 market outlook. The MSCI World soared 9.5% in April, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the march (+15.6%). The S&P 500 added 10.4%, while Emerging Markets also stood out, rising 14.5%.

Unsurprisingly, in a month dominated by technology leadership, Growth largely outperformed Value (+12.3% vs +6.9%), while Europe lagged behind (+4.8%).

On the fixed-income front, the risk-on mood supported credit markets, with the Itraxx Crossover rising sharply (+3.3%), while long-term government bond yields barely moved. Gold edged slightly lower, while oil continued its ascent, with WTI now up 83% year-to-date.

Ultimately, this April 2026 market outlook suggests that, despite geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, investors remain overwhelmingly focused on the transformative power of AI and long-term technology investment trends.

 

This content is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or investment product.

The views and opinions expressed are those of NS PARTNERS SA at the date of publication and may change without notice. References to specific securities, sectors or market developments are provided for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment recommendations or investment research.

Past performance does not predict future returns. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and investors may not recover the amount originally invested. Investments involve risks, including possible loss of capital.

References to market indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance are provided for information purposes only. NS PARTNERS SA makes reasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy of the information contained herein but provides no warranty or representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Some entities of the NS Partners Group or their clients may hold positions in the financial instruments mentioned or may act as advisor to related issuers.

This content may not be distributed or used in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local laws or regulations. Additional information is available upon request.

© NS Partners Group

March 2026 market outlook: How long?

March 2026 Market outlook – Geopolitics, Oil and Stagflation Fears

“How Long” – Ace, 1974 and Lipps Inc, 1980.

March 2026 ends on a bitter note, echoing the haunting refrain of Ace: “How long has this been going on?” Once again, the Middle East is ablaze, plunging markets back into a cycle of tension we had hoped was fading.

In this March 2026 market outlook, this chronic instability acts like a poison on risk appetite, forcing investors to wonder just how much longer geopolitics will continue to overrule — or deeply affect — economic fundamentals.

The consequences are immediate: oil prices are soaring, reigniting inflationary fears just as central banks were attempting to stabilize rates. Uncertainty surrounding shipping routes and energy supplies is creating palpable nervosity across stock indices, with no real flight to safety, as gold as well as govies nosedived.

Beyond the fear that this conflict is here to stay for a while, the risk of its consequences — ranging from rising inflation to falling activity, in other words the infamous stagflation — has roiled almost all asset classes.

Even if a glimmer of hope surged on the very last day of the month, the market seems to whisper, like Ace and Lipps Inc, “I ain’t quite as dumb as I seem,” fully aware that peace remains a fragile mirage.

The numbers confirm the tone. WTI soared by more than 51% in March, triggering inflation fears that propelled 10-year government bond yields to the upside. The dollar found a bid and rose against all major currencies, but, quite unexpectedly in such an environment, gold fell by 12.1%.

Risk-off was also felt in credit markets: the Itraxx Crossover fell close to 2.8%, hampered by rising rates, widening spreads and suspicions about an ongoing crisis in private debt markets.

Equities slumped across the board. The MSCI World abandoned 6.6%, the S&P 500 5.1%, the Nasdaq 4.9%, Europe 8%, while even more pain was inflicted on Japan (-11.2%) and Emerging Markets (-13.3%). Growth and Value went down in sync (-6.8% and -6.4%), and Bitcoin added 2.2%, but remains down 22.2% year to date.

In the end, this March 2026 market outlook leaves investors with more questions than answers — and one lingering refrain: how long can this continue?

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this document only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. 

This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities.

References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. 

© NS Partners Group

February 2026 Market Comments: Are you Ready?

Market Comments – Are You Ready? Style Rotation, Rising Oil Prices and Geopolitical Risk Shake Global Markets

“Are you ready” – Billy Ocean, 1980.

Does Billy Ocean’s beat capture today’s market shifts? In turn, are you ready (or were you ready?) for recent weeks’ sharp shift in the global market outlook, with investors facing strong style rotation, rising oil prices, improving market breadth and, among other things, renewed concerns in private debt, followed at the very end of the month by a sudden escalation in geopolitical risk.

If the Dow Jones more or less flatlined during the month, helped by Energy and Cyclicals, significant damage occurred in software stocks on the back of AI-led disruption threats. Salesforce.com, the poster child of the unstoppable rise of SaaS in the corporate world, lost more than 8% in February, down 26% year to date, and this is not an isolated example. Microsoft, one of the world’s largest company, was down 8.7% in February and is down more than 18% year to date.

Few investors could say they were fully prepared for such a seismic market rotation: software stocks were extremely popular among investors because of their low capital intensity and recurring revenues attributes, and not only in public markets, as private equity as well as private debt also had elevated exposure to software companies. To wit, Blue Owl Capital had to halt redemptions in one of its popular fund investing in private debt; rising defaults and software exposure sparked broader contagion concerns in private credit markets.

The geopolitical bass line also intensified. Markets had some level of preparedness for a deteriorating situation in the Middle East, but clearly not for what happened on February 28, which led to a sudden increase in geopolitical risk premium and renewed volatility across global markets.

In a nutshell: growth vs value rotation, higher oil prices, and a rising risk premium — in essence, a challenge to many of the winning trades of the past few years, and a reminder that markets can quickly move into a more defensive, risk-off environment.

The MSCI World Index added 0.6% in February, very much helped by non-US markets: the S&P 500 lost 0.9% but the Stoxx 600 Europe, Topix Japan and MSCI Emerging Markets respectively rose 3.7%, 10.4% and 5.4%. Value stocks increased its advance versus Growth (+2.8% vs -1.7%) confirming the ongoing style rotation in global equity markets.

Government bonds thrived on the back of safe haven status, while credit markets suffered from the risk-off move and lost 0.2%. When geopolitical tensions rise in the Middle East, oil prices tend to move higher, and when risk-off sentiment dominates, gold prices usually follow. Oil gained 2.8% during the month, while gold rose 7.9%. Bitcoin was among the main casualties of the changing market environment, falling 18.6% in February alone and 27.4% year to date.

Overall, the combination of market rotation, higher oil prices, rising geopolitical tensions and stress in private debt markets suggests that the current investment outlook may be less supportive for the dominant trades of recent years, and that investors should be prepared for a more volatile and selective market environment.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this market comments may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this market comments only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. 

This market comments does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this market comments to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities.

References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. 

© NS Partners Group

January 2026 Market Comments: High Energy!

January 2026 Market Comments

 

“High Energy” – Evelyn Thomas, 1984.

Volatility was the lead singer this month, hitting high notes on many asset classes. The AI revolution has reached a fever pitch, demanding a massive, non-stop surge of electrical power. Data centers are the new power-hungry stars, causing electricity demand to pulse like a heavy bassline: according to the IEA, the global power consumption of AI could double by 2026, a truly High Energy pace. Grid infrastructure stocks are climbing the charts as the world rushes to fuel the silicon brain. Nuclear and renewable sectors are vibrating with fresh capital, chasing the “everlasting love” of stability. The “Hyperscalers” are pouring billions into juice, ensuring their digital empires never lose the beat. Commodity prices for copper and uranium are dancing to an upbeat, aggressive tempo this winter. Investors are “caught up in a game of emotions”, which frequently, or always, lead to heightened volatility.

Gyrations were also very wide in Commodities and precious metals, and the good news in January is that the month ended on a positive note as a whole, which was not a given considering all the news flow, whether geopolitical or financial.

The MSCI World added 2.2% in January, the 10th consecutive month of positive returns, with US markets underperforming Europe, Japan and Emerging Markets: the S&P was up 1.4%, Europe 3.2%, Japan 4.6% and Emerging Markets 8.8%. Currencies had less impact last month, but the dollar was still under pressure. Value largely outperformed Growth (+4.6% versus -0.3%), most fixed-income markets were quite stable (barring the JGBs, which suffered again from rising yields in Japan).

Gold, despite a 11% fall on the last day of the month, still added 13.3%, slightly behind Oil which was up 13.6%. The major laggard in January was the Bitcoin, down 10.8%.

 

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. © NS Partners Group

December 2025 Market Comments: Can the Bull Run “Do It Again”?

December 2025 Market Comments

 

“Do it again” – Steely Dan, 1972.

Investors would surely love financial markets to “Do it Again” in 2026; although Steely Dan’s classic is different as it’s all about repeating the same mistakes again and again, it would be nice to see almost everything rise in 2026 (barring Oil or Cryptos, it was hard to find a losing asset class in 2025). We’ve experienced almost every sentiment in 2025, from fear to greed, panic, FOMO, scepticism and euphoria; but, at the end of the year, bulls won.

So here we are, glasses raised at year-end, wondering: could the band play it one more time? Could 2026 be the encore — another year of liquidity, AI miracles, and soft landings? Or should we expect something different, in other words less capacity to overcome doubts when nasty events happen? “You go back, Jack, do it again, wheel turnin’ round and round”: we will face nasty events this year, like every year before; what matters is how do investors react to them. The market, like the crowd in the bar, is ready to dance again.

Just don’t ask what happens when the music stops.

The MSCI World added 0.7% in December and closed 2025 with an enviable 19.5% gain; almost all equity markets posted solid double digit returns in local currency terms (S&P 500 +16.4%, Stoxx 600 +16.7%, Topix +22.4%, Emerging Markets +30.6%), with a more balanced picture between Growth and Value (+18.2% and +20.4% respectively).

The narrative around AI in general has been a major driver of equity performance, as well as the probable path towards a more dovish Fed, especially at the end of the year.
Currencies, and the dollar in particular, have been an important factor in 2025. The weak dollar (-13.4% versus the euro for the year) makes that returns, when measured in the same currency, are very different compared to local currency returns; for once, Europe has been the best performer in 2025 in this context.

Government bonds faced opposite fates; the US debt did well, while its German counterpart did not. Credit was strong, Oil extremely weak (-20% for the WTI) and Gold extremely strong (+64.6%).

We enter 2026 with a positive mood, but also many possible threats, like high valuations, poor public finances in many countries, geopolitical instability and a possibly shaky private debt situation. So please, Mr Market, “Do it Again” in terms of performances in 2026, but don’t “Do it Again” with complacency regarding valuations or leverage, we know this ends badly.

 

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. © NS Partners Group

Soooo long equities… and, So long, Mr. Buffett.

Soooo long equities… and, So long, Mr. Buffett.

 

So long Equities
Sources: NS Partners, Bloomberg

As shown on the chart of the month, 2025 has been a positive year for investors; this chart simply illustrates the performance of the euro share classes of an equal-weighted portfolio composed by all the products we manage at NS Partners with AuM above € 100 million equivalent. The return of this theoretical portfolio would have been above 12%. It includes alternatives (Haussmann, Lynx, Pendulum), Asset Allocation (Horizonte, NS Balanced), Equities (Stock Selection, Cleaner Energy, Swiss Excellence, Quality Trends) and Convertibles. The beta of this portfolio would have hovered around 0.6, hence a “balanced plus” profile.

It was almost impossible to lose money in 2025 despite multiple perils. Investors embraced the positive mood; institutional cash levels stand at 3.3%, a record low, while positioning is soooo long equities, with exposure close to record high. As the adage goes, markets “climbed the wall of worries”.

Speaking of adages, 2025 has been marked by an important event for all equity markets; Warren Buffett finally decided to retire. Beyond his formidable track record as an investor, Mr Buffett was also a never-ending source of inspiration with his famous quotes. Let us pay tribute to him and review some of the most emblematic, and how they applied to markets in 2025:

“In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield”. So true as the AI capex-related equity boom after the tariffs mess looks logical today, but was hard to bet on in April.

“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful”. A very famous one, but a mixed picture in 2025 as it indeed paid off to be greedy among fear in April, but it did not pay off to be fearful among greed in H2.

“Never ask a barber if you need a haircut”. Always true; don’t listen to self-declared experts on the internet telling you to go long or short the dollar, or Bitcoin, Gold, Nvidia or Silver or whatever. Make your own research and assess the risks you’re ready to take.

And my two favourites:

A rising tide lifts all boats.

This has been very accurate in 2025, with many unprofitable businesses posting spectacular returns on the back of global enthusiasm around AI.

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.

One of his most repeated warnings, which resonates strongly with the turmoil surrounding Oracle or Coreweave on the credit market, both companies running negative free cash-flow and deploying massive capex, while no real pain was felt by the Mag-7.

The last one could be considered as an advice for the year to come.

“Predicting rain doesn’t count. Building arks does”. No one knows what happens next; but good portfolio management consists in investing in a range of asset classes that do not correlate too much with each other. In the long run, the management of risks is paramount. Another great thinker, the late baseball star Yogi Berra, confirmed this relentlessly, stating that: “It’s very difficult to make predictions, especially about the future”.

Happy New Year!

 

 

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS Partners provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data, quotes, research notes or other financial instrument referred to in this document. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer.  Additional information is available on request.
© NS Partners Group

When Big Tech Puts the Old Economy to Work

Big Tech Puts the Old Economy to Work: far from a sterile world, data centers smell of dust and diesel

The commonly held image of a data center is that of grey or white rooms packed with IT and telecom equipment, seemingly operating almost autonomously with minimal human presence. In reality, a functioning data center does indeed look much like this.

Before the white room: the construction site

Yet another reality lies behind this image: one of massive construction works that can be likened to large-scale public infrastructure projects. We typically associate public works with major infrastructure developments commissioned by state or local authorities — roads, sanitation systems, railways, utilities networks, and many others.

At first glance, the construction of a data center does not fundamentally differ from such large infrastructure projects, except for one key aspect: financing. The exceptionally deep pockets of major technology players allow them to undertake these colossal investments through their vast cash-flow generation and borrowing capacity, without recourse to public funds. This represents a fundamental shift in the traditionally accepted order: private companies, through data center projects, are now commissioning a wide range of private and public contractors, whereas historically it was public-sector contracts that engaged both private and public stakeholders.

To simplify, when a technology leader embarks on the construction of a data center, the process begins with surveyors, geotechnical and environmental engineering firms, lawyers, energy consultants and architects. This is followed by project managers, inspection bodies, safety authorities and notaries. Then come the main construction phases: earthworks, civil engineering, structural works, secondary works and technical trades — excavation, foundations, steel structures, waterproofing, electrical systems, generators, cooling, fire detection, cabling and fiber optics. The list is extensive.

Insatiable energy needs

Even before a single server or IT component is installed, a data center will already have generated significant activity for players from the “old economy.” Once operational, this contribution continues. Electricity consumption — regardless of its source — is an obvious necessity, as the reliability of energy supply is the top priority for any data center. The requirements of these giants (often exceeding 200,000 square meters) are immense, typically around 100 MW or more, and must be met without fail.

Unexpected partners

Several companies that might seem unlikely beneficiaries of IT-related projects are now enjoying strong tailwinds. Utilities are one example, as are manufacturers of HVAC (Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning) systems. But let us focus on a more surprising case: Cummins, a U.S. specialist in heavy-duty engines (for agricultural and mining equipment, trucks, ships and generators), a company in which NS Partners has been invested for many years.

While Cummins benefits indirectly from data center construction through engines used in construction and mining equipment, it is a very direct beneficiary of the critical need for highly reliable backup generators. Cummins — like Caterpillar — has decades of operational history in this type of engine technology, allowing it to offer immediate, time-tested solutions. For mechanical enthusiasts: the backup generator is a 95-liter diesel engine, capable of starting in under 20 seconds and delivering continuous power of 2.5 MW.

The acceleration in data center construction has therefore very likely contributed significantly to the company’s remarkable share price performance (+115%) over the past two years, even though it remains, in essence, an indirect player.

A trickle-down effect benefiting the entire economy

Cummins is not an isolated case. It illustrates the highly virtuous trickle-down effect that the current data center investment cycle is having on the real economy. Moreover, at this stage, financing does not appear to be a constraint, given the colossal resources available to technology giants to pursue their ambitions.

While major global equity indices may look expensive today, they are nonetheless supported by a productive investment cycle whose effects extend far beyond the technology sector — and crucially, without reliance on public funding. This is something to welcome.

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of the date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS Partners provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data, quotes, research notes or other financial instruments referred to in this document. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the Finma cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request.  © NS Partners Group

November 2025 Market Comments: The narrative around AI continues to be the major force driving markets moves

NOVEMber 2025 Market Comments

“Turn every stone”, Lalo Schifrin, 1969

It’s indeed necessary so far in 2025 to turn every stone to find an asset class that has not delivered positive returns. From credit to developed or emerging markets equities, not to mention Gold, Value or Growth, everything flashes green, and November, although a tad less buoyant, was no exception. Turning two pebbles would uncover the outliers, which are Oil and the Bitcoin (respectively down 18.4% and 2.7% year to date in USD), the latter having been hammered in November in particular (-16.7%).

The narrative around AI continues to be the major (the only?) force driving markets moves. To wit, after having surpassed the 5 trillion market cap threshold only a few weeks ago, Nvidia’s share price fell more than 12% and wiped out more than 540 billion in market value. So what? A flurry of positive news propelled Alphabet’s share price by more than 13%, translating into a $470 billion surge in market cap… Even credit markets dance on the tempo imposed by AI, illustrated by Oracle’s exploding CDS after the technology giant announced an avalanche of new debt issuance to finance its AI ambitions.

The real economy does not seem fully in line with the markets’ optimism. Increasingly, commentators are referring to the now-(in)famous K-shaped recovery among consumers — a widening wealth gap between those who are thriving in this turbulent environment and those who feel increasingly left behind. The surge in populism seen in most Western nations is a clear outcome: inflation hits people very differently depending on their income bracket, breeding frustration and unrest among the hardest-pressed.

With most governments already heavily indebted and still running large deficits, finding a solution to this problem becomes even more complicated.
Close, but no cigar for the bears: the MSCI World added a meagre 0.18% in November, while the S&P500 grappled 13 basis points; Europe did well with +0.8% for the Stoxx 600, and China and Emerging Markets gave back some of the previous gains (-2.5% for both). In a more volatile month, Value outperformed Growth by a comfortable margin (+1.9% versus -1.3%) and credit, despite some idiosyncratic spread widening from here to there, posted another strong month with +0.8% for the Itraxx Crossover. Gold’s unstoppable rise doesn’t seem to fade, as the shiny stuff powered ahead again: up 5.9% for the month and 61.5% for the year. Uneven consumer sentiment and higher probabilities of Venezuelan’s oil coming back to the market pressured the WTI again; it was down 4% in November, and is now down 18.4% in 2025.

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. © NS Partners Group

October 2025 Market Comments: Nvidia and Tech Surge

October 2025 Market Comments

“Hits from the Bong”, Cypress Hill, 1993

Scratch that; let’s light up Cypress Hill’s “Hits from the Bong”, that 1993 stoner anthem, honouring Dusty Springfield’s extraordinary “Son of a Preacher” music. Because in this month’s financial fog, one thing’s clear: investors needed a serious toke just to stay chill amid the bonkers capex numbers and the tangled web of cross-investments tying Big Tech into a smoky pretzel.

Nvidia is the bong’s main chamber, shipping GPUs like they’re going out of style, as its $5 billion stake in Intel and up-to-$100 billion pour into OpenAI’s Stargate mega-project (a $500 billion joint with SoftBank and Oracle) recycle billions right back into NVDA’s coffers. AMD’s snagging 10% of OpenAI’s chip spend, Meta’s eyeing $20 billion in Oracle cloud, and CoreWeave’s $6.3 billion Nvidia order guarantees the loop keeps spinning – it’s a circular high where everyone’s investing in everyone else’s high.

Capex numbers are straight-up hallucinogenic: more than $500 billion projected for 2026 across hyperscalers, dwarfing entire economies and echoing the dot-com wiring frenzy, but with AI’s promise of trillion-dollar payoffs… or bust. So, like Cypress Hill advises, “Take a hit from the bong, get stoned and forget your troubles, man.” In this AI-fueled haze, staying calm means recognizing the genius in the chaos – cross-investments are diversifying risks while fueling the fire – but keep an eye on the exit when the high fades.

Markets jumped to the beat and revelled in this atmosphere. The MSCI World added 1.94% in October, the Stoxx 600 Europe 2.46%, the Japanese Topix 6.2% and Emerging Markets 4.12%. The ever-growing focus on AI and AI-related plays has triggered another massive outperformance from Growth versus Value and from market-cap versus equal-weighted benchmarks. To wit, the MSCI World Growth and the S&P500 respectively added 4.19% and 2.27% in October, versus -0.59% and -1.04% for the MSCI World Value and the S&P Equal-Weighted. What a stark contrast, leading many to wonder if diversification will pay off again, eventually.

Earnings published so far have been very positive and, more importantly, confirmed the ongoing unprecedented capex frenzy in AI infrastructure at large. Added to that, interest rates are supportive and the Fed doesn’t ring any alarm bell when it comes to inflation. US 10 year yields have headed down 8 out of 10 months in 2025. Credit performed well again despite some isolated failures, and the Itraxx Crossover rose again, for the 8th time out of 10 in 2025! After a parabolic rise at the beginning of the month, Gold calmed down but still recorded a 3.73% rise, which makes it the shining star in 2025 with a +52.5% performance in USD. The dollar regained some ground versus all major currencies but still lags for the year.

That’s it for this month’s Market Comments, stay tuned, markets never skip a beat.

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. © NS Partners Group

September 2025 Market Comments: Nvidia and Tech Surge

“My Name Is”, Eminem, 1999

You probably didn’t know much about me 10 years ago, when the incredible Information Technology-led rally started, my name is, who? I’m the largest market cap ever, my name is, what? I’m the poster child of all Artificial Intelligence hopes, my name is, who? I invest billions of dollars in Intel or Open AI, my name is, what? My market cap has risen 14 fold in the last 3 years, my name is, who?
My name is Nvidia, and I’m neither slim, nor shady.
With an all-time high reached on the 30st of September, Nvidia is a USD 4.5 trillion market cap company, which is more than France and Germany’s total combined market cap; it also represents 70% of the total market cap of Japan, which, 40 years ago, was supposedly set to be the winner-takes-it-all in Technology.
How did we get there? Barring Nvidia’s products and services quality, the company is at the forefront of the AI thematic and is among the largest beneficiaries from the gargantuan capex deployed by Information Technology and Communication Services leaders, who fall into the famous FOMO situation: they all fear of missing out compared to their peers in the race to AI dominance, hence an unstoppable thirst for the latest and most advanced semiconductors. What is fascinating is that Nvidia shrugs off all possible threats that could jeopardize its leadership and market performance: competition (who doesn’t dream of 60% + Ebitda margins?), politics and geopolitics (export control for example), valuation limits (25 times revenues, usually a pricey IPO level) and more recently questionable circular investments (100 billion in Open AI, one of Nvidia’s largest clients, in order to facilitate Open AI’s acquisition of even more Nvidia’s chips).

September 2025 saw equities marching ahead, with the MSCI World up 3.1%, the S&P 500 3.5%, the Nasdaq 5.4%, the Stoxx 600 Europe 1.5%, Emerging Markets 7% and Japan 2%. With IT leading again, Growth vastly outperformed Value (+4.5% versus +1.5%).
Despite much noise around deficits, inflation, economic growth and a looming US shutdown, Government bonds were relatively stable with yields a tad lower. Credit continues to thrive, as demonstrated by the +1.1% recorded by the Itraxx Crossover, now up 6.4% year to date.
Possible increases in OPEC output hammered Oil prices, down 2.6% for the month and 13% for the year (in USD, which means that they’re down more than 25% in euro terms), the dollar got lower again against all currencies, which can explain the exceptional month and year for Gold (+11.9% in September, +47% in 2025) and the strong Bitcoin, up 5.1% for the month and 22.3% for the year so far.

 

 

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. © NS Partners Group